Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.629938 0.727953 0.835236 0.961249 1.105081 1.264003 1.452778
2025-06-08 0.448020 0.576618 0.731937 0.932742 1.184846 1.490199 1.887392
2025-06-15 0.381336 0.530068 0.722713 0.989179 1.346691 1.808079 2.446754
2025-06-22 0.307509 0.456173 0.660391 0.959263 1.382955 1.959070 2.798200
2025-06-29 0.254069 0.399128 0.608942 0.931498 1.411124 2.093320 3.131287
2025-07-06 0.214453 0.354867 0.567655 0.909586 1.440194 2.225728 3.468020
2025-07-13 0.192418 0.333629 0.556745 0.929702 1.530788 2.452674 3.961004
2025-07-20 0.179629 0.325001 0.563569 0.976853 1.666045 2.757112 4.597327
2025-07-27 0.165460 0.311774 0.560707 1.006784 1.774998 3.027960 5.202272
2025-08-03 0.149904 0.293780 0.547232 1.016417 1.849715 3.248028 5.741190
2025-08-10 0.134540 0.273904 0.527805 1.012775 1.899962 3.429741 6.228665
2025-08-17 0.120569 0.254686 0.507097 1.003984 1.939133 3.594094 6.697563
2025-08-24 0.108044 0.236952 0.487685 0.996542 1.981979 3.772051 7.212685
2025-08-31 0.094246 0.214770 0.457196 0.964664 1.976243 3.862820 7.580017
2025-09-07 0.091482 0.215382 0.471799 1.022793 2.148243 4.294153 8.611184
2025-09-14 0.080451 0.196406 0.444078 0.991911 2.141372 4.387006 9.008837
2025-09-21 0.071025 0.179648 0.418915 0.963252 2.135488 4.480018 9.412543
2025-09-28 0.063240 0.165564 0.397780 0.940635 2.139348 4.591517 9.860226
2025-10-05 0.059499 0.160672 0.396507 0.961398 2.236987 4.899317 10.727495
2025-10-12 0.057943 0.160990 0.407160 1.010065 2.399535 5.352973 11.929046
2025-10-19 0.055296 0.158144 0.410027 1.040956 2.525229 5.738669 13.016648
2025-10-26 0.051608 0.152033 0.404316 1.050898 2.604135 6.030125 13.924543
2025-11-02 0.047513 0.144220 0.393463 1.047139 2.650677 6.254129 14.701702